The Book

Great Books

« New GMO Market Forecasts: Stock Investors Are Screwed | Main | About that Housing Market Stabilization... »

8-Year Old Investor Beats Market, Pros

It would be nice if that headline were a joke, but, sadly, it isn't.  How did he do it?  The same way most smart individuals do.  Paul Farrell explains.  By owning a diversified portfolio of index funds (the Vanguard Total Stock Market fund, the Vanguard Total International Stock Market Fund, and the Vanguard Total Bond Market fund).  Thanks to the bonds in the mix, the portfolio has a lower risk (standard deviation) than the S&P and has delivered higher returns.

This, of course, is the smart way to try to beat the pros (the dumb way is to try to out-trade them).  And the nice thing is, because the pros can't buy low-cost index funds, it's almost guaranteed to work.

TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.typepad.com/t/trackback/2015756/16263202

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference 8-Year Old Investor Beats Market, Pros:

Comments

Farrell badly botched his analysis -- Farrell writes that the portfolio performance is the result of insight -- but really result of the 8-year-old's accidental & naive asset allocation. Good result, mediocre analysis.

Post a comment

If you have a TypeKey or TypePad account, please Sign In

Real Investment Gurus

  • TERRANCE ODEAN
    Expert in behavioral finance: the dumb mistakes we make and why.
  • EUGENE FAMA
    Showed that most investment performance has nothing to do with traditional "stockpicking."
  • KENNETH FRENCH
    Dartmouth professor, Fama co-author, and advisor to Dimensional Fund Advisors, which offers intelligently designed (and top-performing) passive funds.
  • ROBERT J. SHILLER
    King of mean-reversion: Sooner or later, markets (stocks or housing) revert to long-term averages. Developed a defensible and predictive valuation tool: the cyclically adjusted PE.
  • JEREMY SIEGEL
    Fame may have gone to head (refers to HIMSELF as "Wizard of Wharton"), but author of excellent books and editorials. Advises WisdomTree, which offers intelligently designed, passive ETFs.
  • JEREMY GRANTHAM
    Manages $100-billion-plus at GMO. Always wise, often funny, occasionally wrong, never in doubt.
  • ANDREW SMITHERS
    Smart, independent strategist. His research costs arm and leg, but occasionally writes for masses (see "Newsroom"). Current view? We're screwed.
  • PAUL KASRIEL
    Northern Trust economist. Writes antidotes to typical "good times will keep rolling" pablum. Colleague Asha Bangalore smart, too.
  • MICHAEL MAUBOUSSIN
    Smart, cross-disciplinary thinker who doesn't waste time predicting future, making trading calls, or being mostly bullish. Identifies what smart investors do that others don't.
  • JOHN BOGLE
    Founder of Vanguard and true hero for small investors. Appalled by the billions the investment industry pays itself each year for subtracting value. Has arguably done more for small investors than anyone in history.
  • WARREN E. BUFFETT
    Of course, but note why: Few predictions, no market timing, no trading, no strategy drift, and favorite holding period of "forever." Also note how utterly different this is than frantic trading and predicting that usually passes for "smart investing."
  • JONATHAN CLEMENTS
    Columnist for WSJ ($). Continues to write about (boring) intelligent investing instead of sexier stock-picking, market-timing, etc., despite voluminous reader ridicule and hate mail.
  • BILL GROSS
    PIMCO bond king. Commanding knowledge of long-term economic and market fundamentals.